B) Germany more complex--especially because they were on the rise growing more powerfully in economics, population, industry

1) Economics--rate of industrialization, before 1871 Germany was primarily agrarian, after 1871 it industrialized at an incredibly rapid rate--2nd most powerful industrial country in the world by 1914

2) this caused a great deal of turmoil rural dwellers in Germany in the 1890s alone declined from 57% to 45%

3) this also put pressure on the Bismarckian state--Bismarck had created universal suffrage judging correctly that the overwhelmingly rural population would remain conservative and support the Junker ideals. He did not count on the effects of rapid industrialization which created a continually growing and continually more radical working class. Working class component of Germany 1871 20%, 1882 25%, 1907 33 %. This working class more over began to feel more and more disfranchised because on the one hand they were not adequately represented districts not redrawn according to population rural reps represented 36,000, urban reps represented 140,000. They also felt disenfranchised because their needs were not met. Unions outlawed and the laws were made to favor the interests of Junkers and industrial baron. Finally, power of Diet unclear, even if Socialists won, unsure they could possibly influence government

4) tariff policies--industrialization was state fomented (in fact German elites of two minds of industrialization they liked the increased power and prestige, hated the social transformations) preferences for large plants and enterprises that lent themselves to monopolies and state welfare--also lent itself to tariff policies that protected these great state interests (in fact state largest owner of private property in Germany) kept cheap grain out with high tariffs (from Russia) and wanted to force Russia to accept German industrial goods this caused problems with relations with Russia and Britain.

5) Need for military build-up to insure that the armaments plants kept on working to give places to the Junkers--dreadnoughts

6) Imperialist ventures as diversionary tactics

a) key because Germany lacked a national identity-Reichsfeindlich--much divided country only in 1871--contained 2.2 million Poles 80,000 Danes, 60,000 Lithuanians 1.5 million Alsace Lorraine plus working classes

b) incidents--colonial policy at first Bismarck Europe is my Africa

the scramble for Africa

Livingstone Stanley and Leopold

Conference of 1885 came up with the idea of rules for the partition

Germany wanted to challenge the rules 2 incidents

c) German governments "with terrific centrifugal forces at home were constantly tempted to fall back on their ultimate stratagem--the diversion of the conflict outward, the manipulation of foreign and colonial policy as a means of domestic control"

--Freidrich von Holstein member of the German foreign office "reactionary governments always try to divert the internal struggle to the foreign sphere"

--Johannes von Miquel Prussian minister of finance"national questions, questions of foreign policy had to be introduced to the Reichstag to turn our attention outwards...for in foreign affairs the sentiments of the nation could usually be united"

--Buelow "Only a successful foreign policy can help to reconcile, pacify rally

 unify. The threat of war in our own times lies in the internal politics of those

 countries in which a weak government is confronted by a strong nationalist

 movement"  

--Bethman Hollweg "The earlier errors: simultaneously Turkish policy against

 Russia, Morocco against France, the navy against England; challenge everybody

 put yourself in everybody's path, and actually weaken no one in this fashion.

 Reason: aimlessness, the need for little prestige successes and solicitude for every

 current of public opinion. The national parties which with their racket about

 foreign policy want to preserve and strengthen their party position

 

C) France

Franco- Prussian War (Answers question why the French were eager for war)

1) Alsace Lorraine

2) War would be short

Joffre in November of 1914 turned down a project to make steel helmets claiming "We shall not have time to make them for I shall twist the Boche"s neck before 2 months are up."^[1]

3) Desire on the part of the French to redeem their honor

a) Imperialism

2nd largest foreign possessions, increased revenue, also soldiers

b) military

1) New organization for studying war

2) draft

3) mobilization

4) morale strong: only .5% desertion rate

5) offensive spirit de Grandmaison "In the offensive imprudence is the best of assurances...Let us go even to excess, and that perhaps will not be far enough....For the attack only two things are necessary: to know where the enemy is and to decide what to do . What the enemy intends to do is of no consequences"^[2]

Where’s Austria-Hungary

The role of Austria-Hungary:

I) Held the Initiative at every point in the conflict:

1) the decision for a showdown in Serbia

2) approach to Berlin

3) framing and timing of the ultimatum

4) Rejection of the “Halt in Belgrade Plan”

–“During the Crisis Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Sazonov made it clear again and again that he was more than willing to see Serbia severely chastised if only Vienna would agree to modify its ultimatum and treat the crisis in Serbia as a European Question.”

4) Start of war in Serbia

Sidney Fay “The Kaiser and his advisers on July 5 and 6 were not criminals plotting the World war; they were simpletons putting ‘a noose around their necks’ and handing the other end of the rope to a stupid and clumsy adventurer who now felt free to go as far as he liked”

II) Why so eager for war:

A) Progressive use of diplomacy of abruptness and threat

1) From 1912-1914 involved in three Balkan crises 1^st didn’t use threat got nothing–2nd threatened force got their demands

2) Belief that the only way to solve the south Slav issue was through military force

B) Desperation about prospects

1) Lack of Finances

2) Triple alliance losing coherence arguing over:

a) who to ally with Bulgaria (Vienna’s choice) or Rumania (Berlin’s choice)

b) Austria’s right to land in case Turkey falls

3) Russia getting stronger

C) Role of personality

1) Conrad von Hötzendorf–wanted war with Serbia–to cover his errors, part of his social Darwinism, to marry Gina von Reininghaus

 

D) Loss of Franz Ferdinand

1) Lost check of heir apparent (separate staff etc.)

2) Lost cautious voice

3) pretext

4) Disquiet following the assassination would be calmed by martial law

 

Where’s Serbia?

Head of Serbian Military Intelligence Colonel Apis had links with the Black Hand which had links to the Mlada Bosna

Serbian Foreign minister: “Ah yes, if the disintegration of Austria Hungary can take place

at the same time as the liquidation of Turkey the solution would be greatly simplified

 

Serbian Journalist “we live in the hope of getting something for ourselves out of the general conflagration whenever it takes place”

 

Does Foreign Policy adventurousness mean a desire for war and was such brinkmanship caused by domestic policy?

Complicated answer both Bulow and Bethman Hollweg believed that a war would exacerbate the problems of Germany: Bethman Hollweg “On the contrary a World War with its incalcuable consequences would strengthen tremendously the power of Social Democracy because they preached peace, and would topple many a throne.”

Riezler “a war would bring a Revolution of everything existing”

 

Nevertheless–brink of war

 

Bulow: believed that war would exacerbate the problems of Germany not help them; Bulow didn’t want war–wanted small gains and started Weltpolitik in order to pacify the disparate elements

 

both saw foreign policy as a minor weapon

Bulow consistently thought war a bad idea

IV The Plans

A) The Schlieffen Plan (Show on Map)

1) Take Care of France first

2) Series of Forts

3) Deathbed statement keep the right strong

B) Plan XVII (Based on Grandmaison's ideas)

1) 4 of 5 French Armies (800,000 men) should charge forward not worrying about enemies intentions--deluded by kaiser's pledge no married man would be called up

2) Wore red

3) Maps of Germany few of France

4) No heavy Guns 300 for France 3000 for Germany (Guns slow you down)

V Mobilization

1) France --mobilized quickly 2,000,000 men 4200 trains 19 late

2) Incredible support for war, England all volunteers, feeling of getting in before it was over they were yearning for the great experience, one draftee "The war had entered into us like wine. There was no lovelier death in the world...anything rather than rest at home"